The Performance of Stability: Ontological Security and Strategic Narrative in Transnistria’s Response to War and Isolation

This research examines how political elites in Transnistria have used strategic narrative since 2014 to preserve identity stability, legitimacy, and political survival amid regional conflict and diplomatic isolation.

Drawing on ontological security theory and strategic narrative analysis, it traces how official discourse adapted across three critical periods: the aftermath of Crimea in 2014, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and the energy and humanitarian crisis of 2025

Research Question

How has Transnistria used strategic narrative to maintain ontological and physical security since 2014 in the context of Russia’s war against Ukraine?

Core Findings

• Following 2014, Transnistrian elites emphasized civilizational alignment with Russia to reinforce legitimacy and identity continuity.

• After 2022, official discourse shifted toward reflexive neutrality—a flexible form of neutrality shaped by identity maintenance and the need to balance dependence on Russian support with regional pressure and international scrutiny.

• By 2025, narratives surrounding energy insecurity and humanitarian vulnerability reinforced legitimacy through repetition, resilience framing, and managed crisis discourse.

• These shifts demonstrate how ontological security needs shape foreign policy positioning and communication strategies in contested or unrecognized states.

Methodology

The project uses structured narrative analysis of Russian-language primary sources, including official statements from the PMR Ministry of Foreign Affairs and state-affiliated media outlets. Sources were coded for recurring narrative motifs, tone, and political function across the key years 2014, 2022, and 2025, allowing longitudinal comparison of identity construction, threat framing, and legitimacy claims.

Significance

This research contributes to the study of post-Soviet geopolitics and contested statehood by showing how political survival in de facto states depends not only on material security or patronage, but also on the continuous production of stabilizing narratives. The findings offer a framework for analyzing political communication, crisis management, and identity maintenance in other unresolved territorial conflicts.

For any inquires, contact me at 
antoniojmorales7@gmail.com